Colorado River Basin: conflict management under hydrologic stress and institutional gridlock

Abstract

In the Colorado River, hydrologic and legal conditions create difficulty in sharing water effectively and equitably during a deep 22-year drought. Demand outstrips supply, water entitlements are over-appropriated, and institutional arrangements are nearly gridlocked. The crisis poses challenges not experienced before, and these may worsen with climate change and warming. It threatens the water supplies of major cities like Los Angeles and Las Vegas, as well as critical agricultural regions in the U.S. The background began to unfold more than 100 years ago, prior to signing of the Colorado River Compact in 1922. The decade prior to 1922 was relatively wet, and the Compact made water allocations that are not sustainable. Institutional challenges are caused by the rigidity of the rules governing river operations and the complex array of stakeholder organizations and management authorities. Although a wet 2022-3 winter provided temporary and only incremental relief, without a hydrologic reversal and/or effective regulatory controls, water levels in Lakes Powell and Mead will decline further and no storage water will be available to satisfy downstream interests. To avoid that scenario, it is likely that drastic curtailments will occur but forecasting them involves uncertainties and speculation. Achieving effective river basin management during the drought will likely require involuntary cuts, voluntary cuts, and possibly litigation, which will be expensive and long-lasting. Federal funding may help on a temporary basis. Involuntary cuts will require a forceful mechanism to push ahead with solutions despite lack of consensus. Lessons include the challenges in creating equity and sustainable conditions in the dry regions with water right systems based on prior appropriation and how to manage transboundary water conflicts within a federal system of government.

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