The ecology and evolution of pathogens in a changing world

Abstract

Infectious diseases are an integral part of natural ecosystems but also pose a serious threat to human health and agriculture. Understanding the multitude of factors shaping the epidemiology and evolution of pathogens is crucial for predicting and mitigating their effects, especially in a rapidly changing world. In this dissertation, I present four studies about how vaccination, emerging pathogens, and climate change affect the epidemiology and evolution of infectious disease. In the first chapter I consider the effects of toxin targeting vaccines, such as acellular pertussis vaccines, on the evolution of pathogen virulence. In the second chapter I map projections of the expected burden of the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. In the third chapter I assess the risk for COVID-19 vaccines to drive the evolution of increased viral virulence. In the fourth chapter I investigate how climate change will alter the epidemiology of fungal plant pathogens using the flax rust system as a model. 3 Abstract.......................................................................................................................................... 3

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