A single climate driver has direct and indirect effects on insect population dynamics
Abstract
Carol L. Boggs1,2* and David W. Weather drives population dynamics directly, through effects on vital rates, or indirectly, through effects on the Inouye1,3 populationÕs competitors, predators or prey and thence on vital rates. Indirect effects may include non-additive 1 Rocky Mountain Biological interactions with density dependence. Detection of climate drivers is critical to predicting climate change Laboratory, PO Box 519, Crested effects, but identification of potential drivers may depend on knowing the underlying mechanisms. For the Butte, CO 81224, USA butterfly Speyeria mormonia, one climate driver, snow melt date, has multiple effects on population growth. Snow 2 Department of Biology, 371 Serra melt date in year t has density-dependent indirect effects. Through frost effects, early snow melt decreases floral Mall, Stanford University, Stanford, resources, thence per-capita nectar availability, which determines fecundity in the lab. Snow melt date in year CA 94305-5020, USA t + 1 has density-independent direct effects. These effects explain 84% of the variation in population growth 3 Department of Biology, University rate. One climate parameter thus has multiple effects on the dynamics of a species with non-overlapping of Maryland, College Park, MD generations, with one effect not detectable without understanding the underlying mechanism. 20742-4415, USA *Correspondence: E-mail: cboggs@stanford.edu
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