Climate variability slows evolutionary responses of <i>Colias</i> butterflies to recent climate change
Abstract
How does recent climate warming and climate variability alter fitness, phenotypic selection and evolution in natural populations? We combine biophysical, demographic and evolutionary models with recent climate data to address this question for the subalpine and alpine butterfly, Colias meadii , in the southern Rocky Mountains. We focus on predicting patterns of selection and evolution for a key thermoregulatory trait, melanin (solar absorptivity) on the posterior ventral hindwings, which affects patterns of body temperature, flight activity, adult and egg survival, and reproductive success in Colias . Both mean annual summer temperatures and thermal variability within summers have increased during the past 60 years at subalpine and alpine sites. At the subalpine site, predicted directional selection on wing absorptivity has shifted from generally positive (favouring increased wing melanin) to generally negative during the past 60 years, but there is substantial variation among years in the predicted magnitude and direction of selection and the optimal absorptivity. The predicted magnitude of directional selection at the alpine site declined during the past 60 years and varies substantially among years, but selection has generally been positive at this site. Predicted evolutionary responses to mean climate warming at the subalpine site since 1980 is small, because of the variability in selection and asymmetry of the fitness function. At both sites, the predicted effects of adaptive evolution on mean population fitness are much smaller than the fluctuations in mean fitness due to climate variability among years. Our analyses suggest that variation in climate within and among years may strongly limit evolutionary responses of ectotherms to mean climate warming in these habitats.
Local Knowledge Graph (18 entities)
Related Works
Items connected by shared entities, co-authorship, citations, or semantic similarity.
Thermoregulatory strategies in Colias butterflies: thermal stress and the limits to adaptation in temporally varying environments
Mechanistic constraints and optimality models: thermoregulatory strategies in Colias butterflies
Thermoregulation and flight in Colias butterflies: elevational patterns and mechanistic limitations
Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change
Phenological responses to multiple environmental drivers under climate change: insights from a long-term observational study and a manipulative field experiment
Data from: A global test for phylogenetic signal in shifts in flowering time under climate change
Colorado?s Alpine Ecosystem Health ? A Case Study on San Juan, Sawatch, and West Elk Mountains
Some Factors Historically Affecting The Distribution and Abundance of Fishes In The Gunnison River
Colorado's Natural Heritage: Rare and Imperiled Animals, Plants, and Plant Communities
Cited By (58 times, 6 in Knowledge Hub)
Scientists’ warning on climate change and insects
How vulnerable are pollen-specialist solitary bees to temperature-mediated shifts in the timing of food availability?
Direct benefits and indirect costs of warm temperatures for high-elevation populations of a solitary bee
Geographic divergence in upper thermal limits across insect life stages: does behavior matter?
Historical changes in thermoregulatory traits of alpine butterflies reveal complex ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change
Adaptation to climate and climate change in Rocky Mountain butterflies: Morphology, physiology, and behavior
References (72)
11 in Knowledge Hub, 61 external